{
 "museum": "The Risk Museum \u2014 BlueShip-AI Research",
 "url": "https://theriskmuseum.com/",
 "exported": "2026-07-13",
 "works_tested": 91,
 "in_the_vault": 2,
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 \u2014 reuse with attribution",
 "exhibits": [
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: group_rank(pv13_com_rk_au / ts_mean(pv13_com_rk_au, 120), industry)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: -rank(ts_zscore(diluted_shares_outstanding_adjustment_avg, 250))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(anl4_afv4_div_number / ts_mean(anl4_afv4_div_number, 120))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(ts_delta(historical_volatility_20, 60))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, CONCENTRATED_WEIGHT, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(ts_zscore(implied_volatility_mean_skew_720, 250))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, CONCENTRATED_WEIGHT, LOW_SUB_UNIVERSE_SHARPE, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: -rank(ts_zscore(common_stock_buyback_payments, 250))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: group_rank(ts_zscore(anl4_afv4_dts_spe, 250), subindustry)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: group_rank(ts_zscore(anl4_bvps_mean, 250), subindustry)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, LOW_SUB_UNIVERSE_SHARPE, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: group_rank(ts_delta(anl4_capex_mean, 10), subindustry)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, LOW_SUB_UNIVERSE_SHARPE, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: -rank(ts_delta(equity_awards_granted_non_option_period, 5))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, CONCENTRATED_WEIGHT, LOW_SUB_UNIVERSE_SHARPE, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: -group_rank(ts_zscore(common_stock_issuance_proceeds, 20), subindustry)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, CONCENTRATED_WEIGHT, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Heston neural forward-approximator: params->IV surface to <0.5 vol pt with >=100x speedup (Horvath-Muguruza-Tomas program)",
   "stage": "approximation-quality",
   "reason": "MAE 66.86 vp / speedup 51684x missed gates",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Dimopoulos Chain v1.5: neural emissions (MLP on HAR+VIX+GJR+state components) beat the full linear baseline OOS",
   "stage": "vs-linear-frontier-oos",
   "reason": "neural emissions did not beat linear ladder (t=-4.37)",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "VRP timing E_no_steamroller: signal-gated SVXY beats always-long SVXY",
   "stage": "excess-vs-always",
   "reason": "no significant excess over always-long (t=-0.36, p=0.660)",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "VRP timing B_contango: signal-gated SVXY beats always-long SVXY",
   "stage": "excess-vs-always",
   "reason": "no significant excess over always-long (t=0.57, p=0.313)",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "VRP timing C_contango_pinned: signal-gated SVXY beats always-long SVXY",
   "stage": "excess-vs-always",
   "reason": "no significant excess over always-long (t=-1.72, p=0.962)",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "VRP timing D_pinned: signal-gated SVXY beats always-long SVXY",
   "stage": "excess-vs-always",
   "reason": "no significant excess over always-long (t=-1.68, p=0.959)",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "GEX-scaled position sizing (0.5x exposed -> 1.5x pinned) beats plain vol-targeted SPY after costs",
   "stage": "overlay-excess",
   "reason": "overlay excess vs plain vol targeting: t=-3.80, p=1.000",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Dimopoulos Chain v1.1: GEX x RV states add next-day range info beyond the combined HAR+VIX+GARCH baseline (OOS, monthly-refit)",
   "stage": "beyond-full-baseline-oos",
   "reason": "Passed vs HAR+VIX+plain-GARCH (t_full=2.83) but failed the stricter GJR-augmented baseline (t_full=1.02) in the same-day rerun; duplicate-claim guard prevented overwrite. Demoted 2026-07-10 \u2014 the strictest run is the verdict.",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Walk-forward-tuned TSMOM family (216 variants, 5y/1y, DD<-35% filter, max-Sharpe selection) beats B&H out-of-sample",
   "stage": "oos-excess",
   "reason": "stitched OOS excess vs B&H: t=-0.62, p=0.738",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "TSMOM vol-targeted SPY (video 'winner' TREND_MOMENTUM_PRO; Moskowitz 2012 lineage) beats buy-and-hold risk-adjusted across regimes",
   "stage": "excess-significance",
   "reason": "excess over B&H is a coin flip (t=0.14, p=0.45); DD reduction real but modest; 9000-attempt source deflator applies",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Circular/servitization quality: firms disclosing longer equipment useful lives and larger warranty/service obligations are durable-asset custodians with underpriced earnings quality (Stahel stocks-vs-flows via Rishel/Circudyne)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, CONCENTRATED_WEIGHT",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Local-news coverage spikes in small caps precede abnormal returns (GDELT volume, v1 all-outlets)",
   "stage": "event-study",
   "reason": "10d CAR t=-1.3 below 2.5 (upper bound)",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: group_rank(fnd6_cptnewqv1300_saleq / ts_mean(fnd6_cptnewqv1300_saleq, 120), industry)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(fnd6_dilavx / ts_mean(fnd6_dilavx, 120))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, LOW_SUB_UNIVERSE_SHARPE, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: group_rank(anl4_capex_mean / ts_mean(anl4_capex_mean, 120), industry)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: -group_rank(ts_zscore(actual_sales_value_annual, 250), sector)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(anl4_afv4_div_low / ts_mean(anl4_afv4_div_low, 120))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(ts_zscore(fnd6_fatp, 250))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(ts_zscore(fnd6_dd2, 250))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(ts_delta(implied_volatility_mean_skew_30, 10))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, CONCENTRATED_WEIGHT, LOW_SUB_UNIVERSE_SHARPE, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(ts_delta(anl4_af_cfps_value, 10))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, LOW_SUB_UNIVERSE_SHARPE, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: group_rank(ts_delta(pv13_ustomergraphrank_hub_rank, 10), subindustry)",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, CONCENTRATED_WEIGHT, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: rank(snt_buzz / ts_mean(snt_buzz, 60))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: group_rank validation test",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, LOW_SUB_UNIVERSE_SHARPE",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: -rank(ts_delta(implied_volatility_mean_skew_120, 20))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, CONCENTRATED_WEIGHT, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: -rank(ts_zscore(anl4_afv4_div_low, 120))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "BRAIN candidate: -rank(ts_delta(fnd6_txtubend, 20))",
   "stage": "brain-checks",
   "reason": "LOW_SHARPE, LOW_FITNESS, CONCENTRATED_WEIGHT, LOW_SUB_UNIVERSE_SHARPE, SELF_CORRELATION",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Illiquid stocks earn a premium (Amihud 2002)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "IS/OOS degradation 53% > 30% (IS 1.47 -> OOS 0.69) \u2014 overfitting signature",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": 1.188,
   "dd": -0.0883,
   "tenk": "$311,748",
   "years": "21"
  },
  {
   "claim": "1-month short-term reversal, retested on the ~500-name S&P universe (Jegadeesh 1990)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=0.95 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=0.168 > 0.05",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": 0.192,
   "dd": -0.1669,
   "tenk": "$128,773",
   "years": "21"
  },
  {
   "claim": "12-1 momentum, retested on the ~500-name S&P universe (Jegadeesh & Titman 1993)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=-0.98 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=0.798 > 0.05; in-sample Sharpe -0.29 <= 0",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": -0.21,
   "dd": -0.5058,
   "tenk": "$61,519",
   "years": "20"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Unusually high recent volume predicts higher returns (Gervais, Kaniel, Mingelgrin 2001)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=-2.31 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=0.987 > 0.05; in-sample Sharpe -0.67 <= 0",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": -0.493,
   "dd": -0.4286,
   "tenk": "$64,849",
   "years": "21"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Negative return skewness predicts higher returns (skewness preference / lottery overpricing)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=-0.87 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=0.829 > 0.05; in-sample Sharpe -0.09 <= 0",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": -0.168,
   "dd": -0.1913,
   "tenk": "$84,789",
   "years": "21"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Low lottery demand (small max daily gain) predicts higher returns (Bali, Cakici, Whitelaw 2011 MAX effect)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=-3.58 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=1.000 > 0.05; in-sample Sharpe -0.65 <= 0",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": -0.699,
   "dd": -0.7667,
   "tenk": "$23,572",
   "years": "21"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Low idiosyncratic volatility predicts higher returns (Ang, Hodrick, Xing, Zhang 2006)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=-3.89 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=1.000 > 0.05; in-sample Sharpe -0.74 <= 0",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": -0.795,
   "dd": -0.7721,
   "tenk": "$22,966",
   "years": "21"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Stocks with high trend consistency (share of up days) exhibit continuation \u2014 continuous information momentum (Da, Gurun, Warachka 2014 'frog in the pan')",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=-1.77 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=0.948 > 0.05; in-sample Sharpe -0.34 <= 0",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": -0.382,
   "dd": -0.5257,
   "tenk": "$53,648",
   "years": "21"
  },
  {
   "claim": "Proximity to 52-week high predicts returns (George & Hwang 2004)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=-2.22 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=0.988 > 0.05; in-sample Sharpe -0.50 <= 0",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": -0.484,
   "dd": -0.7598,
   "tenk": "$28,633",
   "years": "20"
  },
  {
   "claim": "1-month short-term reversal predicts returns (Jegadeesh 1990)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=0.58 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=0.286 > 0.05; IS/OOS degradation 71% > 30% (IS 0.17 -> OOS 0.05) \u2014 overfitting signature",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": 0.125,
   "dd": -0.1903,
   "tenk": "$116,411",
   "years": "21"
  },
  {
   "claim": "12-1 month cross-sectional momentum predicts returns (Jegadeesh & Titman 1993)",
   "stage": "validation",
   "reason": "Newey-West t=0.09 < 2.5; bootstrap P(Sharpe<=0)=0.420 > 0.05; in-sample Sharpe -0.02 <= 0",
   "status": "rejected",
   "tested": "2026-07-07",
   "sharpe": 0.02,
   "dd": -0.4239,
   "tenk": "$93,380",
   "years": "20"
  }
 ]
}