The Forecast Wing

Resolves YES if, as of 11:59pm ET on 2027-12-31, an additional ad valorem duty of at least 10% imposed under USTR's Section 301 forced-labor proceeding (dockets USTR-2026-0265/-0266; affirmative determinations 2026-06-02; final action 2026-07-23; effective 12:01am ET 2026-07-24) is then in legal effect on imports from at least 40 distinct economies, AND the economies still covered accounted for at least 50% of the original 60-economy group's calendar-2025 US goods imports (US Census/USITC country import values, first-published annual figures). Both conditions must hold; the import-value floor prevents token residual coverage from counting as a standing wall. Counting rules: (a) economies as USTR enumerates them, EU counts as one; (b) an economy counts only if the duty under THIS proceeding is then in force, meaning it has not been terminated, has not been suspended for any reason including an executive agreement, trade deal, or compliance determination, has not been reduced below 10%, and is not vacated, stayed, or universally enjoined by a court order then in effect; plaintiff-specific relief does not disqualify an economy; (c) the 10% threshold is this proceeding's rate alone, never stacked with Section 122/232/338, IEEPA or successor, or other 301 dockets; (d) partial product coverage qualifies; (e) suspended duties do NOT count, whether or not the suspension is later reversed. Fewer than 40 qualifying economies at that moment resolves NO. Resolve from the Federal Register, USTR releases, and CIT/CAFC/SCOTUS dockets.

Base rate / current: SCOTUS voided the IEEPA tariffs 6-3 on 2026-02-20, demonstrating live judicial risk to tariff authority. USTR made affirmative determinations in all 60 forced-labor investigations on 2026-06-02, took final action 2026-07-23, and duties took legal effect 2026-07-24 as the Section 122 stopgap lapsed. Seventeen economies carry the flat 10% rate, reached through an existing forced-labor import ban, an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade commitment, or a partial regime (USTR final-action fact sheet); the other 43 carry 12.5%, five of them partly net of MFN. Affected governments began filing challenges immediately. The 2018-19 China Section 301 lists survived their court challenges.

Total calculated duties divided by total customs value, imports for consumption, all countries and commodities, CY2027, from USITC DataWeb (Census source data). Vintage: the annual figure as retrievable after the December-2027 statistical month first publishes (~early Feb 2028) and on or before 2028-03-31; later revisions ignored. Unrounded ratio; YES iff strictly >9.0% (exactly 9.0% = NO). This is the calculated-duties measure (PWBM tracker basis), NOT Treasury/CBP cash collections — refunds do not enter. If DataWeb is unavailable: official Census imports-for-consumption data with calculated-duty and customs-value fields (USA Trade Online); never collections data. If December 2027 is unpublished by 2028-03-31: the same ratio over cumulative CY2027 year-to-date months available.

Base rate / current: Yale statutory rate ~11.8% pre-substitution vs 7.2% collected (May 2026, PWBM), a 3-4.6pp wedge from exemptions, substitution, and transshipment. Pre-2025 baseline was 2.3%.

Primary: China GACC (stats.customs.gov.cn), exports to the US under HS 8505.11 (sum of all Chinese 8-digit children incl. 8505.1110), kg converted to tonnes. YES if the CY2027 total (first GACC release covering full-year 2027) strictly exceeds the mean of CY2022/2023/2024 annual totals as displayed on the same platform at resolution; equal or lower = NO. First-retrieved figures govern. Fallback: if GACC has not published CY2027 country-level 8505.11 by 2028-02-21, or has discontinued/reclassified the line for 2022-2027, use US Census general imports from China, HS 8505.11 (USA Trade Online, customs quantity), identical comparison within the Census series. Resolution date 2028-02-28.

Base rate / current: H1-2026 flows still ~20% below the 2022-24 average despite the truce; extraterritorial controls postponed only one year; the reciprocal-tariff suspension expires 2026-11-10; US demand substitution is ramping.

Covered quarters end after 2026-07-21 and on or before 2028-01-31. PRIMARY: China including Hong Kong geographic revenue in a Form 10-Q or 10-K is at least $2.5B for one covered quarter. SECONDARY: Nvidia explicitly states China data-center revenue of at least $2.0B for one covered quarter in CFO commentary or prepared remarks. Qualitative language does not count. A restatement published by 2028-03-31 governs symmetrically. If neither condition is met, NO.

Base rate / current: $4.6B/quarter pre-ban went to zero; two US approvals (H20 with 15% revenue share, H200 with 25% surcharge) produced zero deliveries. Beijing buy-local directives block purchases; B30A unapproved; guidance assumes no China DC revenue.

Sum the published annual-2026 contribution lines for 'Information processing equipment' (parent line under Equipment) and 'Software' (under Intellectual Property Products) in BEA NIPA Table 1.5.2. Annual-frequency figure (2026 average over 2025 average), not Q4/Q4. Governing vintage: the Q4-2026 third estimate (late March 2027) if published by 2027-03-31; else the most recent BEA release with annual-2026 data by that date; else the first release ever containing it. Later revisions ignored. Published two-decimal values summed, no re-rounding; exactly 1.00 = YES, <=0.99 = NO. Renamed lines resolve to successor lines; a renumbered table resolves to the successor expanded-detail contributions table.

Base rate / current: A widely-circulated institutional estimate (Jan 2026) puts AI capex contribution at ~+140bp to 2026 growth. The observable equipment+software lines contributed ~0.8-1.0pp in 2025 vs a ~0.3-0.5pp pre-2023 decade norm. >=1.00pp is dot-com-peak territory. Apollo's mid-year outlook (Slok, Jun-2026) independently puts AI spending's GDP lift near 1pp, a second named house on the same line the accounts must confirm. Bridgewater's own published estimate (Jensen, DeBois & Zimbler, The Macro Implications of the AI Capex Boom, Jan-2026): ~140bp of 2026 US growth and ~150bp of 2027, with their caveat that a material part is chipmaker profit unlikely to be recycled into the economy.

Resolves YES if PJM's official 2029/30 Base Residual Auction results (report or news release on pjm.com) show an RTO-wide clearing price of $325.00/MW-day or higher, nominal, UCAP, as reported; exactly $325.00 counts. The at-cap language used elsewhere is descriptive only; this threshold governs. The auction is scheduled to close 2026-12-15. If PJM has not published official 2029/30 BRA results by 2027-12-31, whether through postponement, redesign or suspension, resolves NO. Latest official PJM figures as of 2027-03-31 govern.

Base rate / current: Cap hit three-for-three (2026/27 $329.17; 2027/28 $333.44; 2028/29 $325.00). Supply cannot respond by 2029/30: interconnection request-to-COD >4 years, turbine lead times 6-8 years, major turbine vendors sold out through 2030; datacenter demand growing ~5%/yr in commercial sales. Cap provenance: PA Gov. Shapiro's Dec-2024 FERC complaint led to the Jan-2025 PJM settlement (cap $325/MW-day, floor $175), FERC-approved Apr-2025 and extended Apr-2026 through the next two auctions, so the 2029/30 BRA prices under the same authored ceiling; PA claims $18.2B cumulative consumer savings (pa.gov, Jul-15-2026).

For each company, use the consolidated cash-flow line reporting cash paid for additions or purchases of property and equipment, or its direct successor line. Exclude finance-lease principal, acquisitions, and noncash additions. Calendarize Microsoft by summing the four calendar quarters; use calendar-year filings for Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. YES if the CY2027 sum is at least 1.20 times CY2026. Restatements filed by 2028-03-15 govern symmetrically; if a company ceases filing, use the latest official filings for both years and apply the same treatment to numerator and denominator.

Base rate / current: CY2025 combined ~$380-400B; CY2026 guidance ~$500B+; the series has never declined year-over-year since 2015; the telecom analog flipped to -40% in year five (2001). The 2025 tax act's 100% immediate expensing subsidizes the marginal data-center dollar into 2027, a fiscal tailwind under the capex line (Apollo mid-year outlook, Jun-2026). Component scarcity corroborates persistence: SK Hynix has stated it is sold out of all memory capacity until 2027 (cited in the same Bridgewater paper).

Window: 2026-12-31 close to 2029-12-31 close, dividends reinvested, net of expenses. PRIMARY RESOLVER: each sponsor's standardized 3-year average annual NAV total return as of the 2029-12-31 quarter-end (sectorspdrs.com/ssga.com for XLU, ishares.com for IGV), converted cum=(1+r)^3-1; resolves YES if XLU_cum - IGV_cum >= +5.00pp. First published vintage governs. Fallbacks in order: successor fund of an acquiring sponsor; S&P DJI gross index total returns for the underlying indices; Bloomberg adjusted closes. Hard deadline 2030-03-31; if no qualifying data by then, resolves NO.

Base rate / current: Computed, not asserted: 265 rolling monthly 3-year windows Jul-2004 to Jul-2026, XLU beat IGV by >=5.00pp in 27.9%; 22 calendar Dec-Dec windows, 7 of 22 = 31.8%; effective independent sample ~7 windows, standard error roughly +/-15pp. Five of the seven historical YES windows start inside the dot-com unwind. The trade has already run: XLU over IGV +25.4pp trailing 3y through Jul-2026. Both legs fee-inclusive.

YES if the published daily ACMTP10 series shows unrounded values >=1.00 (percent) on 5 consecutive observations dated within the window (endpoints inclusive); weekends/holidays/data gaps do not break a run. Vintage handling (the series is re-estimated), symmetric by design: the then-current vintage is archived on the last business day of each month during the window; YES if any archived vintage shows a qualifying streak dated within the window, NO otherwise. Later re-estimation cannot create a YES or reverse one; both outcomes settle on the same archived record. If the NY Fed discontinues ACMTP10 but publishes a designated successor to the ACM term-premium estimate, that successor governs on the same threshold and rules. No substitution to a different model family is permitted, because this forecast is priced on where ACM sits relative to models that already print higher; substituting one of those would decide the question by choice of estimator. If ACMTP10 is discontinued with no ACM successor, resolves NO.

Base rate / current: ~0.47-0.73% (Jun-Jul 2026), the first sustained positive stretch since 2023; 30y yield >5.1%; ~$10T of Treasuries rolling over in 2026; deficits ~5.8% of GDP; pre-2014 the series regularly sat above 1.5%.

YES if the Grand Total of the Treasury's mfh.txt table is >= $10,000.0B as published to one decimal for any data month July 2026 through June 2028, using the FIRST publication of that month (a new month appears in the release ~mid month+2). Revisions and benchmark restatements ignored. mfh.txt is overwritten in place — first prints are verified contemporaneously or via a release-date archive (e.g. Wayback); the archived first print governs. A renamed table resolves to the successor total-foreign-UST line. The June-2028 print is scheduled ~2028-08-17. NO if no qualifying first print by 2028-08-31; publication delays do not extend the window; later-published figures do not count.

Base rate / current: All TIC figures here are first prints as published by the US Treasury, vintage stated for each. ~$9.2T (Dec-2025 data month), +$1.5T over four years (~+$375B/yr) even as China exits (~-$0.7T) and the foreign share of federal debt falls; ~$9,370B (May-2026 data month, first print); record $9,490B (Feb-2026 data month). Trend crosses $10T ~mid-2028, window-edge by design. No figure here is older than Dec-2025.

A named provider must be the subject of a Commission publication announcing an Article 92 model evaluation, an Article 93 corrective/interim/market-restriction measure, or an Article 101 fine under the AI Act GPAI regime. An Article 91 request for information alone, guidelines, speeches, national-authority action, or DSA/DMA/competition action does not count. First publication controls; publication grace through 2028-01-31 applies only to an action dated on or before 2027-12-31.

Base rate / current: Commission GPAI enforcement powers switch on 2026-08-02 (fines to 3% of worldwide turnover or EUR 15m). Analogues: DMA gatekeeper deadline 2024-03-07 to named proceedings in 18 days; DSA VLOP obligations Aug-2023 to formal proceedings against X in ~4 months; first DSA non-compliance fine EUR 120m, 2025-12-05. Against: no official AI Act case register, the Art. 52(6) systemic-risk list remains unpublished as of 2026-07-27, and the 2027-08-02 grace period shrinks the enforceable population.

YES if any national firm-weighted BTOS estimate for the question labeled business currently using AI in producing goods or services is at least 25.0% for a period ending on or before 2028-12-31 and published by 2029-01-31. The employment-weighted series and future-use question do not count. A successor item counts only if Census explicitly identifies it in release notes or metadata as the continuation of that current-use series; otherwise the original series controls and discontinuation without a qualifying print resolves NO. Exactly 25.0% is YES.

Base rate / current: ~3.9% (fall 2023) → ~9% (2025, old wording); the Nov-2025 rewording lifted the level to ~18% at end-2025; 19.8% at the period ending 2026-05-03, the gap to 25% is ~5pp on the governing series.

YES if IGV cumulative NAV total return minus SPY cumulative NAV total return over the window is <= -25.0pp (exactly -25.0 = YES). Primary: each issuer's published 3-year average annual NAV total return as of 2029-12-31 (ishares.com / ssga.com), cumulative = ((1+r)^3 - 1) x 100, difference unrounded. If either figure is not published by 2030-01-31: chain issuer daily NAV with distributions reinvested on ex-date (Morningstar NAV TR is an acceptable equivalent). First figures published after 2029-12-31 govern. Fund closure/merger/delisting → chain-link the realized fund return with the total-return benchmark index (S&P North American Expanded Technology Software TR / S&P 500 TR or successors) through 2029-12-31.

Base rate / current: A -25pp three-year sector shortfall vs the S&P is roughly a 1-in-5 event given 10-15%/yr tracking error; SaaS multiples already de-rated through 2025-26.

Frozen cohort at submission: Asana, Atlassian, Box, DocuSign, Dropbox, Freshworks, GitLab, monday.com, PagerDuty, RingCentral, Sprout Social, and Zoom Communications. An issuer passes only if (a) substantially the same operating company remains independently listed on a US exchange at 2029-12-31, and (b) its latest fiscal year ending from 2029-01-01 through 2030-03-31, filed by 2030-06-30, reports GAAP revenue growth of at least 10.0% year over year and GAAP gross margin of at least 70.0% (gross profit divided by revenue if not stated). Acquisition, take-private, liquidation, or delisting fails the independence gate; a renamed public successor counts. YES if four or fewer of 12 pass all gates. This is one joint cohort outcome; no marginal probabilities are multiplied.

Base rate / current: All 12 names independently listed as of 2026-07-28, chosen for seat-priced exposure before outcomes were knowable. The II.5 gate rates imply 2.6-4.2 of 12 passing all gates; all-software median net retention has fallen from 123 (early 2022) toward 105, and the public-software universe has been shrinking at roughly a tenth a year through take-privates and acquisitions.